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Improving Time Series Forecasting via Instance-aware Post-hoc Revision

Neural Information Processing Systems

Time series forecasting plays a vital role in various real-world applications and has attracted significant attention in recent decades. While recent methods have achieved remarkable accuracy by incorporating advanced inductive biases and training strategies, we observe that instance-level variations remain a significant challenge. These variations--stemming from distribution shifts, missing data, and long-tail patterns--often lead to suboptimal forecasts for specific instances, even when overall performance appears strong. To address this issue, we propose a model-agnostic framework, PIR, designed to enhance forecasting performance through Post-forecasting Identification and Revision. Specifically, PIR first identifies biased forecasting instances by estimating their accuracy. Based on this, the framework revises the forecasts using contextual information, including covariates and historical time series, from both local and global perspectives in a post-processing fashion. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets with mainstream forecasting models demonstrate that PIR effectively mitigates instance-level errors and significantly improves forecasting reliability.


DecompNet: Enhancing Time Series Forecasting Models with Implicit Decomposition

Neural Information Processing Systems

And based on this idea, we propose a powerful decomposition-based enhancement framework, namely DecompNet. Our method converts the time series decomposition into an implicit process, where it can give a time series model the decomposition-related knowledge during inference, even though this model does not actually decompose the input time series. Thus, our DecompNet can enable a model to inherit the performance promotion brought by time series decomposition but will not introduce any additional inference costs, successfully enhancing the model performance while enjoying better efficiency. Experimentally, our DecompNet exhibits promising enhancement capability and compelling framework generality. Especially, it can also enhance the performance of the latest and state-of-the-art models, greatly pushing the performance limit of time series forecasting. Through comprehensive comparisons, DecompNet also shows excellent performance and efficiency superiority, making the decomposition-based enhancement framework surpass the well-recognized normalization-based frameworks for the first time.


AGeneralized Label Shift Perspective for Cross-Domain Gaze Estimation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Aiming to generalize the well-trained gaze estimation model to new target domains, Cross-domain Gaze Estimation (CDGE) is developed for real-world application scenarios. Existing CDGE methods typically extract the domain-invariant features to mitigate domain shift in feature space, which is proved insufficient by Generalized Label Shift (GLS) theory. In this paper, we introduce a novel GLS perspective to CDGE and modelize the cross-domain problem by label and conditional shift problem. AGLS correction framework is presented and a feasible realization is proposed, in which an importance reweighting strategy based on truncated Gaussian distribution is introduced to overcome the continuity challenges in label shift correction. To embed the reweighted source distribution to conditional invariant learning, we further derive a probability-aware estimation of conditional operator discrepancy. Extensive experiments on standard CDGE tasks with different backbone models validate the superior generalization capability across domain and applicability on various models of proposed method.








54801e196796134a2b0ae5e8adef502f-Paper-Conference.pdf

Neural Information Processing Systems

Although recently proposed parameter-efficient transfer learning (PETL) techniques allowupdating asmallsubsetofparameters (e.g. This is because the gradient computation for the trainable parameters still requires backpropagation through thelargepre-trained backbone model.